Potential Impacts of Anti-Aging and Life Extension – Part 1

An exploratory reflection...first on education and work.

This is essay 1 of 6 essays for 1729 Writers Cohort #1. Apply to 1729 today at https://www.1729.com.

This post is the first of hopefully a series of essays that try to reflect on issues related to aspects of transhumanism, which is arguably termed as the enhancement of the human condition through technology to achieve more longevity, cognitive abilities, emotional states, and other previously seemingly impossible feats. I am not an expert in this emerging field, so these series of essays hopefully serve as notes and logs on reflection points as I try to learn more about relevant issues. These reflections and notes are not perfect or exhaustive, for they are the beginnings of a learning arc.

Now, I would like to take this first post to reflect on potential impact of anti-aging and life extension on multiple levels and dimensions for individuals and societies. Although debate rages on regarding practicality, there is possibility that, decades from now (if not sooner), we may be able to significantly extend both average life expectancies (this has continuously increased over the span of the past two centuries through advances in medicine and lowering of child mortality rates) and natural upper age limits (this has not increased in history, but breakthroughs may take place). We may also process in technologies that allow us to age slower.

Currently, there is research ongoing on a number of potential treatments for anti-aging and life extension. Here is a high level, non-exhaustive outline of several major known methods under research and study:

1 - Dietary Restrictions. All else being equal, the less unhealthy foods you intake, the more likely you would extend your longevity. Scientists could also develop new drugs that mimic dietary restrictions to help slow aging and extend life.

2 - Cellular Repair. In theory, if there are enough mechanisms to replace and repair previously seemingly unrepairable tissues, cells, and cellular functions at a rate as fast as they break apart, then perhaps there would be path to anti-aging. One possible method is to use induced pluripotent stem cells to regenerate cells lost due to aging.

3 - Cellular Reprogramming. In theory, if there were effective ways to redial the clock for cells, then one would in essence dial back one's age. It would be a fountain of youth.

4 - Genetic Engineering and Telomere Extension. Telomeres are regions on one's DNA chromosomes. The shorter one's telomeres, the more likely for one to be susceptible to aging diseases. Enzymes called telomerases could in theory be used to extend telomeres and as a result extend life.

5 - Senolytics. Scientists are researching drugs that could kill senescent cells, or cells that have divided so many times that they stop dividing as well as contribute to aging and disease. If new drugs could eliminate or reduce the number of senescent cells, then we could preemptively prevent aging and disease.

Let’s assume that, in decades to come, humans would be able to stretch their upper natural age limits to 150 years, and that average life expectancies would go above 90-100 years. There are more aggressive estimates, and there's argument that even more advances in life extension technologies in during these longer lifespans would further extend one's years living, but let’s take these arguably conservative hypotheses. For reference, the longest historically recorded lifespan to date is 122 years, while the average life expectancy currently is around 73 years. Let’s also hypothesize that anti-aging technologies would make significant progress. Perhaps, sixty becomes the new thirty. This is not inconceivable. Thousands of years ago, our stone age ancestors would become rare “elders” by the ripe old age of forty; nowadays, even in the most underdeveloped countries, forty is definitely considered productive working age – with at least twenty more working years to go!

In the first post, I will attempt to tackle some reflections on impacts of life extension and anti-aging on learning and work.

Education

Education is changing, with personalized life-long education emerging alongside traditional education institutions. Delays in aging and extension of life spans would accelerate these disruptions and likely make life-long education paradigm the norm.

Yet, one can argue that in almost all countries, the norm for education today still consists of K-12 plus four-year colleges through which students are mostly expected to study a major that could translate to future career prospects. In many countries, the four-year college major, as well as college ranking, become the primary badges that determine one’s eligibility to quality employment. In a nutshell, despite cases of students in certain developed countries taking gap years, today’s mainstream education paradigms on a global scale remain largely linear: do well in high school and placement exams, go to a good college, major in a field of study, and prepare for a career in that field for a majority of one’s productive years. Life is short, one’s productive years are limited, and the cost starting over or reinventing oneself later in life can be very high, so one must make the most of those high school, college, and graduate school years (which is once-in-a-lifetime for most people) to secure economic prospects. Hence, many parents still push their art-loving children to subjects such as finance and accounting.

This would change in the future. Anti-aging and life extension would arguably make emerging non-linear lifelong education paradigms more mainstream in most countries. Life spans are much longer, one’s productive years are greatly extended, and the cost of personal reinvention becomes reduced significantly. With time on their side, people do not need to rely as much on linear and uninterrupted four-year college campus experiences to be the norm. Parents may be less prone to push their art-loving children to study subjects they loathe. Students may be more willing to explore, and gap year could become gap decade.  The phrase “I haven’t figured out what I want to study” may turn out to be a badge of honor.

As one’s foreseeable lifespan and productive years become extended, the need for reinvention becomes a reality and necessity, not just a luxury or a wishful indulgence. Imagine if you were born in 1980, which is arguably not far ago. In high school and college, you were learning Calculus using a TI-83, writing term papers on Windows 95, and programming on FORTRAN. Fast forward only a bit, and you have to adapt to smartphone social media marketing, work with Python, and figure out that Bitcoin thing. And this is only in the span of around 15 years. Imagine a future prime productive lifespan of, say, 75 years. That’s a lot more changes and reinvention.

I don’t think colleges and universities are completely going away, but they must find ways to adapt. Nowadays, continuing studies programs are often seen as annexes to those prestigious four-year undergraduate years, but in the future, it may be reversed. Parents and students may balk more at the cost of four-year undergraduate programs teaching material that may become obsolete after less than a decade. Meanwhile, more flexible, continuous, and non-linear programs would become more obliquitous.  Admission to Columbia University may become a lifelong subscription as opposed to a four-year entrance.

Work

Like education, an individual’s relationship with his or her workplace would likely further shift as a result of anti-aging and life extension advances. The extent of the shifts would also depend on the extent of advances in other technologies, such as artificial intelligence and automation.

Although recent years have given rise to the digital nomad, freelancing, and Web 3 creator movements, as well as countries like Estonia, Georgia, and Portugal supporting such movements, the majority of workforces in most countries remain in more traditional sectors in which the worker progresses through an arguably linear path with fairly top-down structures and well-defined career stages. At the risk of generalizing a bit, one could argue that most see the early-twenties to mid-thirties as the career ascending phase (there are exceptions of course, especially in the tech and startup sectors), followed by the phase of continued ascent for a few in management and stabilization for the rest. Like athletes, a career person’s productive prime is seen as limited. Getting laid off after a certain “prime” age could present great challenges; switching careers and sectors or delving into entrepreneurship after a certain “prime” age could be perceived as risky.

With advancements to anti-aging and life extension technologies, one’s productive prime could be extended. Career stages may also become more fluid and the ascension phase would also not be limited to the first ten or fifteen years of one’s career. With more time on the bank, people may generally become less risk averse to switching careers and sectors or trying out their own startups or businesses – after all, the cushion to fail and start over would get much thicker. Getting laid off after forty may be more perceived as an opportunity for renewal rather than cause for panic. An uptick in entrepreneurship endeavors would also be expected.

While individuals would likely become more willing to jump ship and experiment, companies on the other hand would likely expend more efforts to retain workers and employees (in sectors or functions where automation has less impact). With hikes in the employee’s productive prime, serviceable lifespan, and longevity, companies would be incentivized to retain rather than look for replacements. With lowered switching costs and increased risk-taking by employees on one hand and increased worker lifetime value on the other hand, companies may try to outcompete each other for retention. More companies will likely roll out more “welfare programs” that reward longevity and loyalty.

As a side-note, for some companies, the life-time-value of their customers also become extended. Companies may spend more of their marketing budget on customer retention rather on new customer acquisition.

In the next post, I will attempt to tackle some reflections on impacts of life extension and anti-aging on behavior, relationships, family planning, and society.

This post is purely for reflection and information purposes, and it does not constitute any advocacy for any political, scientific, legal, or ethical position. For earlier posts and musings, please visit whatifwhatif.substack.com.